A recent survey conducted by the German Cannabis Business Association (BvCW) reveals that a majority of Germany’s cannabis industry members consider a full reversal of the country’s cannabis legalization law (CanG) to be unlikely.
This comes amid political uncertainty following the recent federal election, which has sparked debate about the future of cannabis policy in the country.
Survey Results Show Strong Support for CanG Stability
The BvCW poll asked industry members about the likelihood of a complete reversal of the CanG law, which legalized personal cultivation and possession of cannabis in Germany. The results indicate:
- 63.83% believe a full reversal is “very unlikely” or “rather unlikely.”
- 19.15% think a partial rollback of the law is likely.
- 6.38% consider a full reversal “rather likely.”
- 8.51% believe it is “very likely.”
These findings suggest that despite political shifts, most stakeholders in Germany’s cannabis industry do not expect the country to completely roll back legalization.
Current Cannabis Regulations in Germany
As of April 1, 2024, adults in Germany are allowed to cultivate and possess limited amounts of cannabis for personal use. Further regulatory changes, effective from July 1, 2024, allow for the formation of cultivation associations, enabling groups to grow cannabis collectively.
Additionally, cannabis was removed from Germany’s Narcotics List, signaling a major policy shift.
One key aspect of the CanG law—the introduction of regional adult-use cannabis commerce pilot trials—has yet to be implemented. These trials were expected to begin last year, but political uncertainty has led to delays, leaving their future unclear.
Legal Experts and Judges Warn Against Reversal
Legal experts and judicial organizations have weighed in on the potential consequences of repealing the CanG law. Peter Homberg, an international cannabis policy expert, previously suggested that many anti-cannabis statements made during the election campaign were politically motivated and might not translate into actual policy changes.
Additionally, the New Association of Judges (NRV) has warned lawmakers against rolling back legalization, emphasizing the strain such a move would place on the judicial system. According to the NRV:
- A reversal would force courts to once again prosecute small-scale cannabis consumers, diverting resources away from more serious crimes.
- Germany could face financial consequences, as revoking cannabis club licenses—valid for seven years—could lead to legal compensation claims against the state.
These warnings highlight the complex legal and economic factors that policymakers must consider before making any drastic changes to the current law.
Economic Implications of Cannabis Legalization
The economic benefits of maintaining legalization are also significant. A study by the Institute for Competition Economics at Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf estimated that adult-use cannabis legalization could save Germany’s police and judicial system up to 1.3 billion euros annually.
This includes reduced enforcement costs and judicial expenses, further strengthening the case for keeping the CanG law in place.
Personal Perspective
From my perspective, the poll results reflect a broader global trend where cannabis reforms, once enacted, are difficult to reverse. While political shifts may introduce uncertainty, the economic and judicial arguments in favor of legalization make a full rollback highly impractical.
Germany’s approach to legalization is still evolving, and delays in implementing commercial pilot programs may cause frustration among stakeholders. However, with industry experts, legal professionals, and economic analysts warning against reversal, it seems more likely that the focus will be on refining regulations rather than eliminating them entirely.
